Three cities in the Chicago metro area — Joliet, Aurora, and Naperville — have experienced some of … [+]
Thanks in part largely to the increase in mortgage rates due to the rate hikes announced by the Federal Reserve, the once very hot housing market in the United States has been experiencing a serious cooling off in recent months. There are many different signs of this cooling, but one of the more interesting factors is the growth in available for-sale inventory year over year, from 2021 to 2022. Based on monthly housing data from Redfin, we analyzed the 200 largest cities in the U.S. by population and zeroed-in on the change in available inventory from May 2021 to May 2022 (the latest data available at the date of publication).
Read on to find out which housing markets have experienced the biggest growth in available for-sale inventory over the last year.
The 10 cities that have seen the largest growth in housing inventory from May 2021 to May 2022 are an interesting batch. There are some noticeable geographic patterns, with multiple Illinois cities, California cities, and Colorado cities ranking among the list of the top 10 cities. We ranked these 10 cities in order of the percentage growth in year-over-year housing inventory. Check out which cities made our list below.
Located to the southwest of Chicago, Joliet has witnessed a major growth in its housing inventory over the last year. For those wondering, is the housing market going to crash, it may be in Joliet. In May 2021, there was an available inventory of 163 homes for sale in Joliet, down from 314 homes in May 2020. This year, however, available inventory in Joliet is up by 188.3%: From 163 homes for sale in May 2021 to 470 homes in May 2022. This figure, 470 available homes for sale, is actually higher than Joliet’s housing inventory in May 2019, when it stood at 405. The number of home sales in Joliet has also leveled off, increasing by only 5.5%, from 220 home sales in May 2021 to 232 home sales in May 2022.
The median days a home spends on the market before going off market due to sale or pending sale has also increased substantially in Joliet. In May 2021, the median number of days on market for a home in Joliet was five days; a year later, in May 2022, the number of days on market grew by 760%, to a median of 43 days. This is longer than the median of 20 days on market in May 2020 and 14 days in May 2019.
This large suburb of Sacramento has experienced a major growth in available inventory from 2021 to 2022, and the biggest increase in inventory of all the California housing markets in this study. Year over year, inventory in the Roseville housing market has grown by 132.7%: From 98 available homes for sale in May 2021 to 228 homes in May 2022. That’s a remarkable reversal of the trend in previous years, when housing inventory in Roseville continued to decline year after year. In May 2019, Roseville’s for-sale inventory was 355, before dropping to 278 homes in May 2020; it then dropped again to just 98 homes in May 2021. The May 2021 to May 2022 growth in Roseville’s housing inventory is the second largest in this study. At the same time, the number of home sales has declined. In May 2021, the Roseville housing market saw 228 home sales, before declining by 8.8%, to only 208 home sales in May 2022. The change in the median sale price in Roseville also reflects the slowdown in the housing market. In May 2021, the median sale price of a home in Roseville was $640,000, growing by 5.9% to reach $678,000 in May 2022. That’s a far cry from the increase in median sale price a year before, when Roseville’s median sale price grew by 36.5%, from $469,000 in May 2020 to $640,000 in May 2021.
Elk Grove is another Sacramento suburb to make our list. From a for-sale inventory of only 81 homes in May 2021, Elk Grove’s housing inventory grew by 112.3% over the last year, reaching 172 homes available in May 2022. While an available inventory of 172 homes is less than May 2020’s 195 homes or May 2019’s 309 homes, the year-over-year increase in Elk Grove’s inventory is striking. The growth in home prices has also slowed in the Elk Grove housing market. From May 2020, when the median sale price was $440,000, it increased by 36.4% in a single year, reaching $600,000 in May 2021. However, from May 2021 to May 2022, Elk Grove’s median sale price only grew by 10.2%, from $600,000 to $661,250. Another important factor — sales-to-list ratio, the ratio of the sale price of a home to its listing price — has also declined over the last year. In May 2021, the sales-to-list price ratio in Elk Grove was 107.5%. Since then, its declined by 3.6%, down to a sales-to-list ratio of 103.7%; so, while homes are still selling for more than they’re being listed for in Elk Grove, the gap has decreased over the last year.
Here again we have an Illinois city making our list of the 10 cities where housing inventory has increased the most over the last year. Laying to the west of Chicago, Aurora has seen its housing inventory double in just one year: From 214 available homes for sale in May 2021, up to 428 homes in May 2022. This change is a stark reversal of the trend of the last three years, when year after year, the housing inventory in Aurora declined continuously: In May 2019, available inventory was 504 homes, before dropping to 364 homes in May 2020, and then dropping again to 214 homes in May 2021. The number of home sales in Aurora has also declined, from 242 home sales in May 2021, down 5.44%, to 229 home sales in May 2022. That year-over-year change is also quite different from the growth in the number of home sales from 152 sales in May 2020 to 242 home sales in May 2021. Another factor that’s reflecting the slowdown in the Aurora housing market is the median number of days on market. In May 2021, the median number of days a home spent on the market before being bought up was just six days. By May 2022, this number had grown by a staggering 616.7%, to a median of 43 days on market.
North of Los Angeles, in California’s Antelope Valley, the Lancaster housing market has seen its available inventory nearly double over the last year: From 202 available homes for sale in May 2021, up 95% to 394 homes in May 2022. Lancaster’s housing inventory in May 2022 is actually higher than it was in May 2020, when available for-sale inventory was 346. The number of home sales in Lancaster has also flatlined, going from 209 home sales in May 2021 to 209 home sales in May 2022. The change in home prices year-on-year is also striking in the Lancaster housing market. From a median sale price of $402,000 in May 2021, it grew by just 14.2%, reaching $459,000 in May 2022. Compare that one-year growth to the growth from May 2020 to May 2021: 30.9%, from a median sale price of $307,000 to $402,000.
Now we’re on our third Illinois city to make the list of the 10 cities where housing inventory has increased the most over the last year. Not far from Aurora, Naperville is another large Chicago suburb that’s witnessed a dramatic rise in its available housing inventory in 2022. From 278 available homes for sale in May 2021, inventory in Naperville jumped by 84.2% in the last year, reaching 512 available homes for sale in May 2022. Compare that one-year change in inventory to the pervious one-year period: From an inventory of 565 homes in May 2020, Naperville housing inventory was cut in half (-50.8%) over the course of the next year, falling to 278 homes available in May 2021.
The change in home prices has stayed relatively stable in Naperville. The median sale price in Naperville was $415,000 in May 2020, rose by 12.7% to reach $467,500 in May 2021, and then rose again, by 11.2%, to reach $520,000 in May 2022. However, home sales have declined noticeably, by 21.5%, since last year: From 312 home sales in May 2021 to 245 home sale in May 2022. What’s more, this Illinois city also witnessed one of the largest increases in the number of days a home spends on the market before being taken off. In May 2021, the median number of days on market for a home in Naperville was a mere five days; a year later, in May 2022, the number of days on market for a home soared by 740%, to a median of 42 days on the market.
Boise became an especially hot housing market during the pandemic, due in part to West Coast residents buying up properties, most of them likely with jobs that could be performed remotely. But over the last year, the Boise housing market has seen its available inventory climb by 75.1%, from 333 homes for sale in May 2021 to 583 available homes in May 2022. That is quite a different year-over-year change than had happened between May 2020 to May 2021: Boise housing inventory dropped by 48.5%, from 646 available homes in May 2020 to 333 available homes in May 2021. Home prices have continued to rise in the Boise housing market, by 21.9%, from $480,000 in May 2021 to $585,000 in May 2022. However, this 21.9%, though solid, is almost half as fast as the growth (42%) in home prices from May 2020 ($338,000) to May 2021 ($480,000). Home sales in Boise also witnessed a decline, going from 413 home sales in May 2021, down 14% to reach 355 home sales in May 2022.
Yes indeed, there is another city named Aurora to make this list. A suburb outside of Denver that’s become a sizeable city in its own right, Aurora has seen its housing inventory increase over the last year by nearly three-quarters (74%): From an available inventory of 246 homes in May 2021 to an available inventory of 428 homes in May 2022. Home prices in Aurora have slowed their year-on-year growth a bit. From May 2020, the median sale price was $365,750, before rising by 20.8% to $442,000 in May 2021. After that, home prices still increased, but by 13.1%, from $442,000 in May 2021 to $500,000 in May 2022.
Thornton is the second of two Colorado cities to make this list of the housing markets where inventory has increased the most in 2022. The growth in Thornton’s available inventory is not far behind No. 8 Aurora’s: From an available inventory of 86 homes in May 2021, it rose by 70.9% in a single year, reaching a new available inventory of 147 homes. The build-up in housing inventory in Thornton may have been greater had not home sales managed to increase year over year. In May 2021, there were 227 home sales, which rose by 14.1%, to reach 259 home sales in May 2022. Home prices in the Thornton housing market have continued to rise, but at a slower pace from the previous one-year period. From May 2020, when the median sale price was $389,950, prices rose by 21.8% to reach a median sale price of $475,000 in May 2021; from there, prices increased by 16.8%, reaching a median sale price of $555,000 in May 2022.
The last city to make our list of the 10 major cities that have experienced the biggest increase in housing inventory is Murfreesboro. Over the last year, available inventory in the Murfreesboro housing market grew by just under two-thirds (60.6%): From an available inventory of 188 homes in May 2021, up to an inventory of 302 homes in May 2022. But while the increase in Murfreesboro’s housing inventory from May 2021 to May 2022 was the 10th largest in the study, the slashing in the city’s inventory from 2020 to 2021 was staggering. In May 2020, available inventory in Murfreesboro stood at 844 homes, from where it then dropped by an incredible 77.7% — meaning, more than three-quarters of available homes for sale disappeared from the market — reaching 188 homes in May 2021. Thus, while housing inventory is building up in Murfreesboro in 2022, it’s still way down from where it stood in May 2020 (844 homes) and May 2019 (904 homes).
When it comes to 2022 housing market predictions, only a few things can be said with some level of above-average confidence. The Colorado housing market has seen its major cities witness solid, double-digit-teens rates of growth in home prices from May 2021 to May 2022:
Compare all these year-over-year growth figures to the 15.1% May 2021-to-May 2022 rate for Colorado state overall; and against the 14.8% May 2021-to-May 2022 rate for the nation as a whole. Colorado’s year-over-year changes in median sale price closely mirrors national rates of change, with both the state of Colorado and the U.S. experiencing their highest price growth rates in May 2021 (24.7% for Colorado and 25.8% for the U.S. in median sale price growth from May 2020 to May 2021). Thus, when it comes to 2022 housing market predictions for Colorado, much of its housing activity will follow what goes on nationally. Changes in inventory year-over-year in Colorado closely follow national rates of annual change, both reaching their most recent highs in May 2022: Colorado experienced a 14.9% increase, and the U.S. experienced a 1.8% increase in their levels of housing inventory that month since May 2021.
When it comes to 2022 housing market predictions for the Illinois housing market, the trends are under heavy influence from longer-term developments — like the effects of deindustrialization still affecting Chicago and its surrounding area — as well as more immediate influences like in other states, such as the movement of the Millennial generation into homeownership, pandemic-induced swings and surge in demand, and the fed funds rate hikes in 2022, which have dampened the frenzy in most housing markets. Over the year from May 2021 to May 2022, the Illinois year-over-year growth in housing inventory was 27%, far in excess of the national average rate of 1.8%, but within range of Aurora’s 21.3% annual growth. Illinois home price growth year-over-year peaked at 20.1% in June 2021, a month after the national peak; year-over-year growth rates in home prices continued to mirror national trends, taking a dive for the next few months. But, where national year-over-year home price growth rates reached their low ebb in October 2021 at 13.1%, the Illinois year-over-year growth in median sale price that same month was a mere 4%, and it has stayed in the single digits ever since.
The California housing market includes many major cities, spread across a wide range of the state, so making any general 2022 housing market predictions about it are difficult. However, it is interesting that two of the California cities to make this list of housing markets with the biggest growth in inventory are in the Sacramento metro area. But the question remains: is the housing market going to crash? The housing market is unlikely to crash like it famously did in the 2007-2008 bursting of the housing bubble. For all the surge in demand and prices and dwindling of supply of homes in the last two years, the current housing market is very different than the market in the years of the lead-up to the housing bubble burst (2005 through 2007). Nowadays, NINJA loans (“no income, no job, and no assets”) are no longer getting dished out, with absurd loan-to-value ratios, to borrowers who clearly are not able to pay the mortgage on a home whose price is well beyond their means. And while adjustable-rate mortgages (AR